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Syndication

Dean Oliver, Director of Analytics at ESPN Stats and Info, joins the show to discuss ESPN’s quarterback measurement tool, QBR. Dean led the development of QBR, and has shepherded its development since its release in 2011.

Dave and Dean begin the show with a trip back in time to Dean’s childhood in Hawaii, where he explains how he first became interested in statistics and developed his own baseball simulation dice games to play with friends.

They then discuss QBR in depth, looking specifically at the types of questions it is designed to answer. Dean explains how QBR’s component parts work together to describe a Quarterback’s contributions to his team’s success. He also discusses why certain QBs may surprise people with their ratings, and why we’ll be talking about Andrew Luck for years to come. Finally, they end the episode by covering how the stat has changed and improved since its inception, and look at how the college version of QBR differs from its professional counterpart.

Direct download: 004_AdvNFLStats_DeanOliver.PODCAST.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:00am PDT

Chase Stuart, founder of Football Perspective and a regular contributor to the New York Times, calls in to the show from his home in New York City. Dave and Chase begin by discussing two point conversions, and how expected value and variance come into play when coaches make the call to go for two. Chase goes on to discuss his own metric for looking at in-game point differential, called Game Scripts. He explains how Game Scripts can be used in conjunction with run/pass ratio to contextualize a team's general tendencies over the course of a season. The episode ends with a check-in on season win projections for the five remaining undefeated teams, along with some well-deserved gushing about Peyton Manning's unbelievable season.

Direct download: 003_AdvNFLStats_ChaseStuart.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:30am PDT

Keith Goldner, chief analyst at Numberfire and a regular contributor to Advanced NFL Stats, joins Dave to discuss his recent research. Keith begins by outlining his Markov model for football, explaining how to use historical data to calculate the probability of an offensive drive ending in a particular "end state". The two then discuss the concept of "net expected points", and compare and contrast its value as a tool in combination with other efficiency stats. The show ends with a detailed analysis of two fourth down decisions from last week's games, highlighting the frustrating difference between good process and good results.

Direct download: 002_AdvNFLStats_KeithGoldner_FINAL.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:00am PDT

In the show’s first episode, host Dave Collins is joined by Brian Burke, founder of AdvancedNFLStats.com, to talk about his background and why he began researching the NFL. Brian breaks down some of his most poweful metrics, and provides context into the current state of pro football data analysis. They also preview some early season trends, and try to figure out just how bad the Jaguars really are.

Direct download: 001_AdvNFLStats_BrianBurke_FINAL.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 9:30pm PDT