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October 2017
S M T W T F S
     
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Syndication

 

Neil Paine (Senior Sportswriter, FiveThirtyEight) discusses with Dave how he and the team at FiveThirtyEight use Elo scores to rank NFL teams and explains how his research on backup quarterbacks led to surprising conclusions on the importance of backup QB skill level. Dave then digs up some of Neil’s older research examining how much individual wide receivers are responsible for their quarterback’s success. They close out the show with a look at the structure of the NFL playoffs and weigh the pros and cons of Neil’s proposal to make the NFL postseason more “fair”.

Direct download: 034_AFAPodcast.Neil.Paine.11.11.14.pod.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:30am PDT

 

Keith Goldner, Chief Analyst at Numberfire.com and regular AFA contributor, rejoins the show to break down the best and worst individual player performances this season. Keith and Dave discuss the optimal strategy for goal to go offensive play-calling, and examine the underlying reasons behind the net expected point (NEP) production of the NFL's top QBs, RBs, and WR/TEs.

Direct download: 033_AFAPodcast.Keith.Goldner.11.6.14.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:30am PDT

 

Alok Pattani (ESPN Stats and Info) rejoins the podcast to break down the new college football playoffs process. Alok explains the statistics he and his colleagues at ESPN developed to frame the on-air debate over which teams are the “best” vs. which teams “deserve” to be selected by the playoff committee. Dave and Alok analyze the first set of rankings released this week while Alok shares takeaways from his conversations with committee representatives and makes his probabilistic predictions for which teams will make the “Football Final Four”.

Direct download: 032_AFAPodcast.Alok.Pattani.10.29.14.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:30am PDT

 

Brian Burke is on the podcast for an (almost) mid-season recap of the NFL season. Dave and Brian go team by team and dive into some of the more interesting 2014 team successes and failures. They also highlight visualizations and tools buried deep in the new AFA site, and make some predictions for what to expect in the second half of the season.

Direct download: 031_AFAPodcast.Brian.Burke.10.23.14.final.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:30am PDT

The AFA podcast is back with a brand new episode featuring sports economist Dave Berri, author of “The Wages of Wins” and “Stumbling on Wins”. Dave and Dave begin with a discussion of the Detroit Lions recent success, and look at some of Professor Berri’s research on the predictive power of quarterback stats. Professor Berri then explains his views on the business of college football through the lens of labor economics and describes what it was like to testify during the Northwestern unionization hearings.

Direct download: 030_AFAPodcast.Dave.Berri.10.17.14.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:30am PDT

Brian Burke makes his first regular season appearance on the podcast to recap week two and discuss some of his latest analysis. Brian explains his break-even models for two point conversions and challenges and describes how the WOPR allows him to create test data for all sorts of interesting hypothetical game strategies. He also discusses an upcoming post that examines when teams should start running their "four minute offense". Dave and Brian close out the episode with an update on the 4th down bot and the new home and format for Brian's weekly game predictions.

 

This episode is sponsored by DraftKings, the leading provider of daily fantasy sports. If you use this this link or promo code "AFA" to create a new account and make a deposit you'll gain a free $2 entry into this weekend's $100,000 Play Action Tournament.

Direct download: 029_AFAPodcast.Brian.Burke.9.17.14.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:30am PDT

Chase Stuart rejoins the show to break down the surprising week one winners and losers. Chase shares his observations from the Jets home opener and explains some of the weekend's more intriguing game scripts. He also examines the data on exactly how important week one results are in predicting the season while looking ahead to the most intriguing week two match-ups.

Direct download: 028_AFAPodcast.Chase.Stuart.9.10.14.v2.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:30am PDT

 

It's an episode full of pivot tables and preseason predictions as Mike Sando, ESPN insider, joins the show to discuss coaching tiers, predict breakout candidates and preview the upcoming NFL season. Mike shares his process for ranking and evaluating players and coaches, makes some predictions for the upcoming season and reveals his secret analytical weapon - a massive excel spreadsheet he uses to track every conceivable type of player data.

Direct download: 027_AFAPodcast.Mike.Sando.8.29.14.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 3:30am PDT

 

Keith Goldner, Chief Analyst at Numberfire, returns to provide some fantasy football wisdom. He dissects the different strategies for snake, auction and keeper league drafts, and explains how to incorporate risk management strategies when creating your roster. Keith and Dave also touch on daily fantasy games, and look at how to craft the optimal lineups for various league types. They close out the episode by highlighting the players to watch during the 2014 fantasy season.

Direct download: 026_AFAPodcast.Keith.Goldner.8.22.14.FINAL.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:30am PDT

Aaron Schatz, founder of Football Outsiders, joins the podcast to discuss the newly released 2014 Football Outsiders Almanac. Aaron explains how he and his team developed a system to combine game film analysis with box score data to create their own advanced metrics.  He breaks down the difference between rate statistics and totals, and explains how the concept of “replacement level” is important in football. Aaron also provides team-by-team breakdowns and predictions, and finishes up the episode by conquering Dave’s “lightning round” of questions.

Direct download: 025_AFAPodcast.Aaron.Schatz.8.11.14_FINAL.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:30am PDT