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Syndication

Mike Lopez (@StatsbyLopez), professor of statistics at Skidmore College, joins Dave to discuss his recent trip to the NESSIS conference. He and Dave go on to talk about his paper on how the rate of discretionary penalty calling by referees changes over time, and how certain rule changes in the NFL have had drastic effects on penalty rates. Mike then reviews his preseason prediction on how the new extra point changes would alter two point conversion attempt rates over the first few weeks of the season. Mike and Dave finish up the episode with a look at Mike's tracking of prediction websites, and discuss how the edge gained from advanced researchers making NFL predictions has waned in the last decade.

Direct download: 053_AFAPodcast.Mike.Lopez.10.1.15.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:30am PDT

Jim Pagels (Forbes, FiveThirtyEight, Bloomberg) is on the show to discuss his recent research on NFL TV ratings. Jim explains how overlapping seasons for different sports create a negative crossover effect on viewership and proposes some schedule changes that could fix the issue. He also discusses NFL survivor pool strategy, a new way of using EPA to score your fantasy football league and closes out the episode with a discussion of where to find value in NFL futures bets.

Direct download: 052_AFAPodcast.Jim.Pagels.9.24.15.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:30am PDT

Sterling Xie (Football Outsiders, @sterlingxie) is on to discuss last night's Patriots/Steelers season opener, the AFC East and the teams he researched in depth (Vikings and Lions) for this year's Football Outsiders Almanac. Sterling makes some predictions on the best and worst case scenarios for teams and picks his favorite matchups for week one of the season.

Direct download: 051_AFAPodcast.Sterling.Xie.9.11.15.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:11pm PDT

Keith Goldner (Numberfire.com) returns to provide some expert fantasy advice. He describes the data he uses to plan for his drafts and highlghts his favorite players to own in 2015.

Direct download: 050_AFAPodcast.Keith.Goldner.9.2.15.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 3:30am PDT

Brian Burke (ESPN Stats & Info) returns to discuss how he went from from running Advanced Football Analytics to his new role working on special projects on the stats & info team at ESPN.  He describes the new NFL Football Power index he's working on and assures Dave that he's hard at work bringing back all the old tools from AFA onto ESPN platforms. Brian also explains how his golf win probability model made a splash during the PGA championship, and how working at a big company changes the way projects get released.

Direct download: 049_AFAPodcast.Brian.Burke.8.28.15.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:30am PDT

Jonathan Bales (@BalesFootball) is on to preview the year in daily and season-long fantasy football. He discusses the daily fantasy roster construction and player evaluation strategies outlined in his book "Fantasy Football For Smart People" and provides excellent tips on how to prepare for the 2015 fantasy football season.

Direct download: 048_AFAPodcast.Jonathan.Bales.8.21.15.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:30am PDT

Gill Alexander (@beatingthebook), host of the Beating the Book podcast, joins Dave to discuss the current state of the football betting markets. On the episode, Gill explains how he incorporates a variety of perspectives, methods and data into his NFL handicapping and how keeping an open mind to opposing viewpoints can be a big advantage in wagering.

Direct download: 047_AFAPodcast.Gill.Alexander.8.14.15.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:30am PDT

 

Mike Sando (ESPN) joins host Dave Collins to talk training camp, quarterback rankings and the team storylines he’s following heading into 2015.

Direct download: 046_AFAPodcast.Mike.Sando.8.6.15.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 5:00am PDT

Brian Burke returns to preview the 2015 NFL draft. Brian and Dave begin by discussing the “backpack” metaphor for building an NFL roster and describe the trade-offs the NFL GM’s must make when preparing to bring on new talent. Brian goes on to explain how he reexamined the famous “Massey-Thaler Draft Surplus Study” with new data. To close out the show, Brian previews the newly updated Bayesian Draft “War Room” and Draft Trade Evaluator tools and explains how teams and fans can use them during the draft broadcast.

Direct download: 045_AFAPodcast.Brian.Burke.4.27.15.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:30am PDT

For the first time in its history, the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference hosted a data hackathon. The challenge was to put together a visualization using ESPN's database of NFL statistics. Dave travelled to Boston to participate in the hackathon, and as his output, documented the processes and outcomes of the event by interviewing participants, organizers and leaders involved in the experience.

Direct download: Sloan.Hackathon.2.26.15.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 4:12pm PDT