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October 2015
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Syndication

Sterling Xie (Football Outsiders, Bleacher Report) returns to review his preseason projections. He and Dave begin by looking at the results we've seen so far from the Detroit Lions and speculate what sorts of changes fans can expect to see with a new offensive coordinator. They then discuss the Vikings, and try to decipher the discrepancies between the team's record and DVOA as well as what to take away from Teddy Bridgewater's performance through six games.

Next, Sterling discusses his research on the top defensive front sevens in the NFL and explains which metrics he chose to isolate front seven performance. The episode finishes with a discussion of Sterling's work following the Patriots each week and which units he's watching closely in the second half of the season.

Links:

Direct download: 057_AFAPodcast.Sterling.Xie.10.29.15.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:30am PDT

Brian Burke returns for his record-setting 15th appearance on the podcast. He discusses his recent trip up to ESPN headquarters in Bristol, CT and the work he's done to integrate Win Probability onto all the ESPN platforms.

Dave and Brian then discuss FPI and what it can tell us about the future of the remaining unbeaten teams, and how the upcoming return of quarterbacks from injury can raise a team's rating. They also discuss QBR and compare the seasons of Andy Dalton and Peyton Manning.

Dave and Brian then discuss how FPI can help understand upcoming week seven match-ups. The episode concludes with Brain retelling the story of how he was starstuck when he ran into some ESPN on-camera talent in the ESPN cafeteria!

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Direct download: 056_AFAPodcast.Brian.Burke.10.23.15.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 7:51pm PDT

Trey Causey (@TreyCausey) is a data scientist, NFL statistical consultant and writer. He joins Dave on this episode to discuss what he's learned during his time working for an "unnamed" NFL team. He explains how the structure of a team's analytics department is crucial to their ability to promote change in an organization, and how the unique time pressures of professional sports make creating a successful long-standing analytics operation a tough challenge. Trey goes on to explain some of his research on k-means clustering and how it's a useful way to organize players into groups. Dave and Trey close out the episode with a discussion of the 4th down bot and the challenges Trey has faced in updating its win probability algorithms for end of game situations.

Links from this episode

Subscribe on iTunes, on Stitcher, or via RSS. Don't forget to leave a rating! 

Direct download: 054_AFAPodcast.Trey.Causey.10.8.15.v2.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:30am PDT

Mike Lopez (@StatsbyLopez), professor of statistics at Skidmore College, joins Dave to discuss his recent trip to the NESSIS conference. He and Dave go on to talk about his paper on how the rate of discretionary penalty calling by referees changes over time, and how certain rule changes in the NFL have had drastic effects on penalty rates. Mike then reviews his preseason prediction on how the new extra point changes would alter two point conversion attempt rates over the first few weeks of the season. Mike and Dave finish up the episode with a look at Mike's tracking of prediction websites, and discuss how the edge gained from advanced researchers making NFL predictions has waned in the last decade.

Direct download: 053_AFAPodcast.Mike.Lopez.10.1.15.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:30am PDT

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