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Syndication

 

Brian Burke returns to the show to recap the 2014 NFL draft. He describes the Bayesian Draft Analysis tool he created and discusses the value of trades made by teams during the draft. Brian and Dave then discuss their favorite new addition to the league, John Urschel and make a pitch to get him to contribute to the site. Brian also previews his new project, WOPR, and explains how it'll help generate data for some previously unanswerable questions.

Direct download: 022_AdvNFLStats.BrianBurke.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:30am PDT

Cade Massey, professor of Organizational Behavior at the Yale School of Management, joins the show to discuss his research on the NFL draft. Professor Massey is the co-author of "The Loser's Curse: Decision Making & Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft", a paper analyzing the market for draft pick trades He and his co-author, Richard Thaler (insert NYT link) discovered that teams picking at the top of the draft actually sacrifice a great deal of what he calls "surplus value" by not trading down for additional selections. 

Dave and Cade look at the reasons why teams employ less than optimal strategies, including risk aversion, adherence to norms established by "The Chart" and other psychological factors. Professor Massey defends his paper against some of the common criticisms, and discusses why he believes the draft is such a compelling spectator event.

Direct download: 021_AdvNFLStats.CadeMassey.mp3
Category:Football -- posted at: 12:30am PDT

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